Analysts have previously signaled that market share for Allergan’s top-selling Botox should be safe even after new competitors show up. But new survey results indicate otherwise.A poll of 100 high-volume U.S. aesthetic physicians, conducted by Bernstein, suggests that forthcoming entrants from Revance, Evolus and Hugel could grab up to 33% to 34% of the market, Bernstein analyst Ronny Gal wrote to clients Thursday. Revance would capture the lion’s share at 18%, with the other two companies splitting a 13% share, according to the results.
Those figures aren’t exactly in line with Gal’s own model, which puts market penetration for the newcomers at 19% altogether. But he and his colleagues “expect Botox to also lose pricing power,” slowing the product’s compound annual growth rate to 4%, compared with the 12% it’s seen over the last five years.